Mongolia offers itself as a model for change

By Jehangir S. Pocha

ULAN BATOR, Mongolia - Officials in the drab Soviet-era government buildings that dominate the skyline here concede that Mongolia is used to being an afterthought in global geopolitics.

Yet even as the great powers grapple with North Korea 's nuclear ambitions, Mongolia has quietly been using its nonthreatening status to open a dialogue with the North Korean government and woo its leaders toward change.

The two nations have signed a friendship treaty and reopened once-closed diplomatic relations. They are also working together on a range of industrial, agricultural and commercial projects intended to be of mutual benefit and to draw on each nation's comparative advantages.

The primary tool Mongolians are using to engage the North Koreans is the story of Mongolia 's own successful transition from an isolated Stalinist state to a free-market democracy.

"I really believe that Mongolia 's experience is very much transferable to North Korea ," Prime Minister Tsakhia Elbegdorj of Mongolia said in an interview. "I think we can become a kind of transition consultant to them."

Mongolia and North Korea found themselves at similar crossroads when the Soviet Union , their common ally and chief benefactor, collapsed in 1991. But the two countries chose different ways to deal with their problems.

While North Korea 's continuing Stalinism has brought it to the brink of collapse, Mongolia undertook a series of political and economic changes that have revitalized the country.

In Ulan Bator , the Communist-era structures built in heroic style to proclaim the power of the workers' revolution are now crowned with giant neon signs that advertise cellphones and designer clothing. Incomes have nearly tripled over the past decade.

In the evenings, the streets are jammed with cars as a new generation of Mongolians who have given up traditional nomadic herding life to work in the city head to recently opened nightclubs and restaurants.

More significant, the European, Japanese and American aid and guidance flowing into Mongolia have been crucial in helping the country develop its democratic institutions and economy.

Many Mongolians hope that their country's transformation can show North Korea that there is life after Stalinism, and a pretty good life at that. And despite tough talk from North Korea , Elbegdorj said that North Korea realizes it needs to change, but is unsure of how to go about it.

"They talk to us, listen to us, because we're not Western people trying to teach them" the Western way of life, said Elbegdorj. "We are like them, and we are simply sharing our knowledge, our experience, with them through workshops and meetings."

Pamela Slutz, the U.S. ambassador in Ulan Bator , said that despite President George W. Bush's having called North Korea part of an "axis of evil," the Bush administration is not alarmed by Mongolia 's efforts. "On the contrary, we support them," Slutz said.

" Mongolia supports our call for a denuclearized Korean Peninsula ," she added. "We are consulting very closely with them to make sure what they are doing doesn't undermine U.S. efforts. One reason I think Mongolia can be quite successful is that it also shares extensive cultural, diplomatic and ethnicities with North Korea ."

Ethnically, Koreans and Mongolians, like the Japanese, are not Han like most Chinese.

This fraternity has become an important thread in the web of ties that Mongolia is building with the Koreas and Japan as it pursues its "third neighbor" policy. This pillar of Mongolian foreign policy is designed to overcome the disadvantage of being landlocked between Russia and China , by building close ties with South Korea and Japan , as well as the United States and India .

But Bat-Erdene Batbayar, a historian and adviser to Elbegdorj who goes by the single name Baabar, said there were also more mercantile interests at work.

The long-term dream, he said, is for North Asia to create a trade bloc that would reach Europe and generate about $30 billion to $50 billion in trade for Mongolia over a decade or so. The main stumbling block is North Korea 's self-imposed isolation - another incentive for Mongolia to encourage reform there.

If North Korea could be coaxed into opening up, a continuous rail transit could be established between North and South Korea and Europe , using the trans-Siberian railroad, which runs through Russia and Mongolia . The idea has been raised by the Russian president, Vladmir Putin.

That worries China . "It would like any transit route to Europe to use as much of its territory as possible," said Stephen Noerper, professor of Asian affairs at American University in Washington .

China is also concerned that Washington is using Mongolia as part of a strategy to encircle and contain China , he said, so it doesn't "want anything that articulates a successful democratic transition to get too much attention."

Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at the People's University in Beijing , dismisses the idea that Mongolia could have any real effect on North Korea 's nuclear ambitions, or its economic reforms.

"The indispensable players in this are China and the United States ," he said.

In Mongolia , the official tone toward Beijing is always respectful. But beneath that is a quiet determination to resist growing Chinese influence in the region, stemming from centuries of living under what Mongolia calls the Manchu yoke, from 1691 to 1921.

In the past two years, Mongolia has arranged numerous meetings and conferences with North Korea , despite scowling from China , which is the biggest source of aid to North Korea . Many of the sessions have been sponsored by the Northeast Asia Association of Mongolia, a private research institution with unofficial links to the government.

Baabar, a co-founder of the association, said he has traveled to North Korea more than 30 times in recent years, principally to share with North Koreans how Mongolia has been opening up its economy.

"Most of the cooperation is being channeled through backdoor diplomacy because officially the North Koreans say they have no interest in reform," Baabar said. "But unofficially there is great curiosity at how our step-by-step movement to the market system worked. They ask us a lot of questions and want to find ways to make money."

The most public result of this has been the friendship treaty Mongolia and North Korea signed in August 2002. This led to North Korea 's reopening its embassy in Ulan Bator , which had been closed in 1999. Both countries are also collaborating on large infrastructure and construction projects and on an ambitious agricultural development project.

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