By Jehangir S. Pocha, Globe Correspondent | March 6, 2005
BEIJING -- Rumors that Hong Kong's chief executive, Tung Chee-hwa, is about to resign under pressure from Beijing are bringing into sharp relief the tensions among Hong Kong's powerful tycoons, the territory's democracy movement, and China. The clash is casting a pall over the wealthy territory's hopes for democracy.
''We don't know whether he was pushed or whether he jumped, but what's clearly emerging is that Beijing is getting more and more involved in this mess," said Emily Lau, chairwoman of the pro-democracy Frontier Party, and a member of Hong Kong's fledgling but mostly toothless Legislative Council, or LegCo. ''I fear this is a big setback" for democracy in Hong Kong, Lau added.
Lau's suspicions are widely echoed in Hong Kong, fueling concerns that China is betraying the ''one country, two systems" formula and increasingly interfering in Hong Kong's affairs -- mostly to control the power of Hong Kong's tycoons and to delay or deny the universal suffrage that some in this former British colony want to gain by 2007. That is when Hong Kong's constitution and election laws are slated for revision.
The rumors of the departure of Tung, 67, have not been confirmed or denied by the Chinese government or Tung, who is in Beijing attending the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, a powerless advisory council to which he was recently nominated as vice chairman.
But media reports speculate that official word of Tung's departure will come once he is confirmed in this new post, feeding the theory that he is being kicked upstairs by China's president, Hu Jintao.
That will not bring tears to many eyes, said Martin Lee, founder of Hong Kong's opposition Democratic Party, and one of Tung's harshest critics.
''Tung was deeply unpopular with the people. Now even his handlers in Beijing see him to be inefficient and too much in collusion with property tycoons like Li Kashing," Lee said, referring to Hong Kong's richest man.
A billionaire shipping tycoon himself, Tung was handpicked by China's previous president, Jiang Zemin, to run Hong Kong when it was returned to China after 150 years of British control in 1997. But being inside the clique of Hong Kong's powerful clans did not endear Tung to many common Hong Kongers. They saw him as the consummate insider, more interested in protecting Hong Kong's commercial interests than building on the slim political freedoms that Christopher Patten, Britain's last governor to Hong Kong, had given the territory.
In 2003, when Tung tried to pass a controversial law against sedition that would have allowed the arrest of journalists and citizens on flimsy grounds, the backlash from the street was as severe as it was unexpected. About a half- million people marched peacefully through this generally apolitical city July 1, Hong Kong's national holiday, to demand a withdrawal of the law. An alarmed Beijing, which fears public unrest over all things, asked Tung to give in.
Tung's image was further damaged by the SARS epidemic that soon followed, killing 300 residents and gutting the territory's economy. The SARS outbreak also riled Hu, who had just taken over China's presidency and did not appreciate the embarrassment SARS caused him during his first months in office. On a visit to Hong Kong last December, Hu delivered a rare public admonishment to Tung, causing him to lose face and be seen as a lame-duck leader.
''Some say that from then on, the writing was on the wall," said Michael DeGolyer, associate professor of government at Hong Kong Baptist University and director of the Hong Kong Transition Project, a study of the territory's metamorphosis from British colony to Chinese special administrative region. ''Tung and the other tycoons have always gone about acting as if it is their inherited right to rule Hong Kong, divide all the wealth between themselves, and leave only crumbs for others. Jiang put up with that, but Hu is different."
Since coming to power, Hu has positioned himself as a reformer intent on undoing the ills of the Jiang years, when corruption and inequalities rose dramatically in China.
DeGolyer said that although Hu is no more interested in moving toward multiparty democracy than Jiang was, he is demanding more efficient management and better governance from officials. Indeed, Hu is now overseeing a massive reshuffle of officials and replacing older and discredited bureaucrats with a new generation of younger technocrats.
''Tung was the most senior appointment Jiang made and also one of the most controversial," Lee said. ''It's very convenient to make him the fall guy so they can look like benign reformers. But the real question is not whether they change a useless person, but how they will change a faulty system."
Hong Kong's electoral system is designed to allow for a slow diffusion of democracy. First implemented in 1991 by Patten, its constitution divides control of Hong Kong's Legislative Council between the territory's two most important stakeholders -- big business and the people.
In the early years, the power of the people was limited and they could elect only 18 of LegCo's 60 members. The rest were selected by business groups and corporations. The constitution is designed to increase the number of directly elected seats over time, and half of LegCo is now chosen by the people.
The election of the chief executive is even more controlled, and the person is selected by an election committee of only 800 members.
But the current system of electing the chief executive and LegCo members is scheduled to end in 2007 and 2008 respectively, and LegCo has to pass a new electoral system with a two-thirds majority.
DeGolyer said all three sides see this as a window of opportunity to promote their interests.
Hong Kong's democrats want to move to a one-person, one-vote system, and surveys indicate that about 70 percent of Hong Kongers said they support that. The tycoons, who have become accustomed to running things in the financial hub, want to ensure that any new system preserves their privileged status and interests.
Beijing, despite its promise to steer clear of Hong Kong's local politics until 2047 under the one-country, two-systems formula, wants to increase its control over the territory, for Hong Kong is Asia's richest city and drives the growth in China's richest province, Guangdong. China also wants to avoid the introduction of universal franchise because of the example this would set for the mainland.
With no single party currently able to muster the 40 votes needed to revise the constitution, ''a lot of horse-trading and behind-the-scenes deals" are expected to determine the final outcome, said Lau, of the Frontier Party.
''The problem with Tung was that Hu didn't think he was up to the job" of making the deal China wanted, DeGolyer said. ''It's also possible that Tung wasn't willing to compromise the interests of the tycoons as much as Beijing wanted him to. So he resigned rather than sell out the people he's closest to."
Media reports here say that if Tung goes, Hong Kong's most senior civil servant, the popular Donald Tsang, is likely to be made acting chief executive and fill out the remaining two years of Tung's term.
''He has the ability to knock heads and get a deal in time for 2007," DeGolyer said. ''Putting Tung's head on a spike was the best way to tell the tycoons they have to play ball, [and] the democrats are likely to make a deal because they know Beijing isn't going to go for one-person, one-vote."
But the Democratic Party's Lee is not impressed.
''Tsang was Tung's right-hand man, so he is just as responsible for all the mistakes in Hong Kong these past few years," Lee said. Also, ''according to the constitution, if a chief executive quits, there must be new elections within 120 days and the new person must serve a full five-year term."
That would open a fresh can of worms, with people accusing Beijing of trying to install a puppet chief executive who could govern Hong Kong well into 2010 and postpone the decision on revising the election system, DeGolyer said. ''I don't think that will happen, as then Hu is risking unrest in Hong Kong in 2007-08, when Beijing will hold the Olympics."
The complications and unknowns of the current scenario indicate that nobody had really planned on this, Lau said.
While few people doubt that Hong Kong will remain an attractive commercial destination -- after all, keeping it so is in everyone's interest -- Lau is less sanguine about the territory's chances for democracy.
''The idea of universal suffrage is now less likely to happen," she said.
''But we're not going to give up. The fight must go on."